The Every day 202: How the Virginia governor’s race may scare Republicans away from felony justice reform

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The Daily 202: How the Virginia governor’s race might scare Republicans away from criminal justice reform

With Breanne Deppisch and Joanie Greve

THE BIG IDEA: The efficiency of Ed Gillespie’s law-and-order message within the Virginia governor’s race could have a chilling impact on felony justice reform efforts across the nation by deterring different Republicans from taking on the difficulty.

Within the closing weeks of the marketing campaign, the Republican gubernatorial nominee has blistered his Democratic rival for supporting Gov. Terry McAuliffe’s order that restored voting rights to felons, together with a intercourse offender who accomplished his sentence and was rearrested, however not convicted, on little one pornography expenses.

Either side consider that this line of assault has been a big consider permitting Gillespie to shut the hole with Ralph Northam in private and non-private polls. Democrats concerned within the race consider that advertisements on this theme, which they are saying are unfair and deceptive, have shrunk their lead by a few factors — each by interesting to suburban swing voters and consolidating help for Gillespie amongst individuals who love Donald Trump however have considered the previous Republican Nationwide Committee chairman warily.

In a tweetstorm from Asia this morning, the president echoed Gillespie’s closing message:

Conservative elites, led by the Koch brothers, have championed coverage initiatives lately to encourage extra leniency for convicts and to enhance reentry packages for after they get out. They’ve made strides across the nation, even in deep crimson states, and got here near getting a federal invoice by means of the Senate final 12 months.

Felony justice reform is a a lot harder promote politically than substantively. There’ll at all times be recidivism, and unhealthy individuals will fall by means of the cracks. If a lawmaker votes for one thing or a governor points an order to provide a wayward apple one other probability at rejoining society, however that apple continues to be rotten, it’s as straightforward as apple pie to provide commercials that make them eat it.

That’s why the Willie Horton advert in opposition to Michael Dukakis in 1988 helped result in a technology of harder sentences and fewer sympathy, even for nonviolent drug offenders. Politicizing crime this manner has led to an enormous overcrowding of prisons.

Trump broke with the zeitgeist by working a lock-her-up-and-throw-away-the-key type of marketing campaign. Then he appointed Jeff Periods, who has lengthy been the one greatest impediment to felony justice reform within the Senate, as legal professional common. Republicans like Gillespie are actually following his lead.

Bold Republicans, particularly these with 2020 and/or 2024 presidential aspirations, are watching at the moment’s off-year election in Virginia for classes they could be taught. They’re already conversant in latest historical past. As governor of Arkansas, Mike Huckabee issued greater than 1,000 commutations and pardons. He acquired political mileage out of it on the time, however the effort backfired in 2009 when one of many convicts whose sentence he commuted killed 4 cops. Vulnerability on this difficulty was one of many causes he opted to not search the Republican nomination in 2012.

— Some background on what occurred in Virginia for those who haven’t been following the story: “In one of the few states that permanently disenfranchises felons, McAuliffe (D) has restored the right to vote and to serve on juries to more than 168,000 felons who have completed their sentences. His action also helped them over the first hurdle to have their gun rights restored, although the felons still need judges to sign off,” Laura Vozzella and Fenit Nirappil clarify.

  • “McAuliffe had supposed his unique govt order to cowl solely felons who had served their time and accomplished parole, however he mistakenly restored rights to 132 intercourse offenders nonetheless in custody in addition to to a number of convicted killers on probation in different states …
  • “Republican legislators, livid as a result of the order included violent felons and people who had not paid court docket prices or made restitution to their victims, filed a lawsuit with the state Supreme Court docket. The GOP received, with the court docket ruling that the governor had exceeded his clemency powers as a result of he restored rights en masse as a substitute of individually. Since then, the governor has used a quick however individualized strategy to revive rights to 156,000 felons — a course of that handed muster with the excessive court docket.”

What the narrator says in Gillespie’s advert: “Last year, Terry McAuliffe and Ralph Northam instituted the automatic restoration of rights for violent felons and sex offenders, making it easier for them to obtain firearms and allowing them to serve on juries. One of these felons, John Bowen, had his rights restored two months after being found with one of the largest child pornography collections in Virginia’s history.” A shorter model of the advert ends with a clip of Northam, the lieutenant governor, calling the restoration of rights “one of our greatest feats.”

What really occurred: Bowen was convicted of aggravated sexual battery and indecent liberties with a minor in 2001 and served a one-year sentence. Like different felons who had accomplished their sentences, he had his rights restored beneath McAuliffe. Bowen misplaced his voting rights once more in January when he pleaded responsible to a brand new felony, possession of kid pornography. He’s now serving 15 years in jail. (The Virginian-Pilot has extra particulars on the Bowen case.)

The Northam marketing campaign cries foul: “Gillespie is running a fact-free, fear-mongering campaign in vintage Trump fashion,” mentioned spokesman David Turner. “It is a new low for him to accuse a pediatrician and children’s hospice medical director of favoring felons who have hurt children.”

Gillespie’s marketing campaign says he helps felony justice reform if it’s “tough, fair and smart.” A white paper launched round Labor Day mentioned he would search a everlasting legislative resolution and observe the lead of former Republican governor Bob McDonnell, who simplified and accelerated the method with out robotically restoring voting rights. The Koch community endorsed this strategy when Gillespie unveiled the plan.

— McAuliffe, a possible Democratic candidate for president in 2020, considers the restoration of voting rights his proudest achievement in workplace. He has reacted angrily to Gillespie’s assault advert. “In 40 states, you couldn’t run that ad because it’s automatic. There’s no governor involved. I just made Virginia the 41st state,” he mentioned throughout a get-out-the-vote rally in Fairfax over the weekend. “These people deserve second chances! They’ve served their time. They’re back in society. … This is not a Democratic or a Republican issue. This is a human rights issue!”

— Each vote counts: Republican operative Rick Gates, the senior aide on Trump’s presidential marketing campaign who was indicted as a part of the particular counsel’s Russia investigation, acquired permission from a federal decide to depart home arrest at the moment in order that he can vote within the Virginia election. Northam’s marketing campaign mentioned it doesn’t object to Gates receiving permission to vote however accused Gillespie of hypocrisy for not opposing Gates’s request. Gillespie aides declined to remark.

— Gillespie is as effectively positioned as he may hope for going into at the moment, however he stays the underdog. Demographics and the nationwide atmosphere (Trump’s approval score is 38 p.c amongst doubtless voters in our ballot) give the benefit to Northam. Virginia is trending blue. It was the one Southern state Hillary Clinton received a 12 months in the past at the moment. And the state has an extended historical past of electing a governor of the other get together from the president.

— Three polls printed yesterday give Northam a slight edge however present a really shut race:

  • Fox Information places Northam up 5 factors (48 to 43): “By a seven-point margin, McAuliffe is considered positively (43 p.c favorable vs. 36 p.c unfavorable), whereas President Trump is in unfavorable territory by 15 (40-55 p.c). Totally 88 p.c of voters who view Trump favorably again Gillespie, whereas 81 p.c of those that have a unfavorable view help Northam. Curiosity within the election is a tad bit larger amongst Democrats, as 48 p.c say they’re extraordinarily in comparison with 44 p.c amongst Republicans.”
  • Monmouth College places Northam up by two factors: “Northam’s benefit in Northern Virginia stands at 59% to 30%. Gillespie, alternatively, leads by a equally large 64% to 30% margin within the western a part of the Commonwealth. Northam has regained the sting in his dwelling area of jap Virginia at 54% to 39%. Northam led on this area in July and September however Gillespie briefly closed the hole final month. ‘Gillespie is performing very strongly within the western area and will even eclipse Donald Trump’s 2016 majority there. Northam is doing about the identical in Northern Virginia as McAuliffe’s 2013 displaying and is working barely higher than the incumbent did alongside the Chesapeake Bay. It is all going to come back right down to the central a part of the state. The counties surrounding the higher Richmond space are more likely to decide the subsequent governor,’ mentioned Patrick Murray, director of the unbiased Monmouth College Polling Institute.”
  • The Polling Firm, a GOP agency previously owned by Kellyanne Conway, has Northam up 1 level (45-44) in its monitoring ballot. “Gillespie’s focus on security … has played a pivotal role in energizing Republican voters and making this race a dead heat going into election day,” mentioned conservative strategist Greg Mueller of CRC Public Relations, which now owns the agency.

— Polls are open in Virginia till 7 p.m. Jap.

— 4 different states we’re watching at the moment:

  • Portland Press Herald: “Increasing eligibility for MaineCare, the state’s Medicaid medical insurance program, is Query 2 on the state poll. Maine would be the first state within the nation to weigh in on Medicaid enlargement by referendum. … Republican Gov. Paul LePage has vetoed Medicaid enlargement 5 occasions, which led to the hassle by supporters to place the difficulty on the poll.”
  • Newark Star-Ledger: “Within the race to succeed [New Jersey] Gov. Chris Christie, [Democrat Phil] Murphy … accused his Republican rival, Kim Guadagno, of ‘trying to scare people’ with (her) advertisements in opposition to him. However most urgent on the eve of an election that pollsters predict may finish with a record-low turnout was Murphy’s pitch to go for a decisive win. ‘There are an uncomfortable amount of people who are not paying attention to all of this,’ Murphy mentioned concerning the statewide race.”
  • NPR: “The Drug Worth Aid Act, higher often known as Ohio Concern 2, has been promoted and pilloried in a dizzying crush of robocalls, junk mail and advertisements on TV and radio. Opponents say the legislation can be unattainable to implement, may restrict sufferers’ entry to medicines and would not essentially get monetary savings. Proponents are promoting the initiative as a type of revolt that might save thousands and thousands of in an period of well being care anxiousness. And within the run-up to Election Day, voters say it is tough to make sense of all of it.”
  • Seattle Instances: Whether or not Republicans keep management of the Washington state Senate is on the road in a particular election.

WHILE YOU WERE SLEEPING:

— DHS has advised 2,500 Nicaraguans dwelling right here with provisional residency standing they’ve 14 months to depart the nation. But it surely’s permitting 14,000 Hondurans with the identical standing to remain whereas it continues to deliberate their destiny. Nick Miroff studies. “The decision was likely to displease immigration hard-liners who have urged the administration to end the TPS program on the grounds that it was never intended to bestow long-term residency to those who may have entered the country illegally. But DHS Acting Secretary Elaine Duke appeared to deliberate on the decision right up to Monday night’s deadline, and the six-month extension for Hondurans punts the decision to Duke’s successor.”

The announcement comes one week after Rex Tillerson despatched a letter to Duke primarily giving DHS a inexperienced gentle to raise protections for Central Individuals and Haitians, writing that situations in these international locations “no longer warranted an exemption from deportation.”

TEXAS SHOOTING LATEST:

— The South Texas church bloodbath that left 26 individuals useless got here amid a “domestic dispute” between the gunman and his household, a few of whom attended the small Baptist church. Eva Ruth Moravec and Mark Berman report: “While few clues were initially offered about what made [Devin Patrick] Kelley target a church in tiny Sutherland Springs, officials had suggested family ties could have played a role. Joe D. Tackitt Jr., the Wilson County sheriff, said Monday that Kelley’s in-laws had attended the church but were not present Sunday. They came to the scene after the shooting.” Authorities mentioned that along with the 26 individuals who have been slain in Sunday’s assault, one other 20 have been injured – no less than 10 of whom stay in crucial situation.

  • Tackitt mentioned the aftermath was a “horrific sight:” “You don’t expect to walk into church and find mauled bodies,” he mentioned, including that greater than a dozen of these killed or injured within the assault have been kids. “People from this community would never think this could happen.”
  • Texas authorities reported that Kelley suffered three gunshot wounds, together with a self-inflicted shot to the top. He was additionally shot within the leg and torso by an armed citizen. (CNN’s Holly Yan, AnneClaire Stapleton and Darran Simon)

— Kelley was discharged from the Air Pressure for unhealthy conduct in 2014, which ought to have precluded him from acquiring firearms. “[Kelley] was court-martialed in 2012 and sentenced to a year in military prison for assaulting his then-wife and her child,” our colleagues write. “According to court martial documents … Kelley kicked, choked and struck his wife in 2011 and 2012. He also struck her young child ‘on the head and body with a force likely to produce death or grievous bodily harm[.]”

— The Air Pressure mentioned it didn’t observe procedures for alerting legislation enforcement about Kelly’s violent previous, which allowed him to acquire the weapons utilized in Sunday’s mass capturing. “Initial information indicates that Kelley’s domestic violence offense was not entered into the National Criminal Information Center database,” Air Pressure spokesman Ann Stefanek mentioned in an announcement. She added that Air Pressure Secretary Heather Wilson and Chief of Workers Gen. David Goldfein have directed an investigation of Kelley’s case and “relevant policies and procedures.” (Alex Horton)

THE VICTIMS:

— The names of those that died within the capturing are starting to be launched. Listed below are a number of of their tales:

  • Robert and Shani Corrigan have been highschool sweethearts who moved again to the San Antonio space after Robert retired from the Air Pressure as a chief grasp sergeant in 2015. Two of their sons stay on lively responsibility with the Air Pressure, whereas one other died final November.
  • Haley Krueger was simply 16. Her father died two years in the past of pancreatic most cancers, forsaking Haley and her three siblings. Haley’s older brother wrote on Fb of her loss of life, “R.I. P little sister we love you with all my heart and I will miss you Soo much.”
  • Joann Ward died together with her two kids, 7-year-old Emily Garza and 5-year-old Brooke Ward. Her son Ryland was additionally injured and is now in steady situation. A relative advised the Dallas Morning Information of the capturing, “The church, of all places.”
  • The Publish is protecting a listing of the victims’ tales and can replace it as extra data turns into obtainable.

— The Holcombes misplaced eight members of their prolonged household. The New York Instances’s Shannon Sims, Julie Turkewitz and Christina Caron report: “Bryan and Karla Holcombe, a guest preacher and his wife, were dead. Their son Marc Daniel Holcombe, gone. Their pregnant daughter-in-law, Crystal Holcombe, gone. And four of their grandchildren — Noah, Emily, Megan and Greg — gone. … [T]he gunman nearly wiped out the Holcombe family, leaving Joe Holcombe, 86, Bryan’s father, to mourn the loss of the generations he had raised. ‘We know where they are now,’ he said in an interview, his voice strained by exhaustion. ‘All of our family members, they’re all Christian. And it won’t be long until we’re with them.’”

— The capturing in Sutherland Springs was really the second lethal act of violence at a spot of worship on Sunday. Cleve R. Wootson Jr. studies: “[A] month ago, Martha Garcia filed for divorce, Fresno Police Chief Jerry Dyer told reporters. Shortly after, Martha Garcia told family and friends that there was a new man in her life. The new couple had attended a 7:30 a.m. Mass at St. Alphonsus Church on Sunday. An hour later, officers were called to the church parking lot, where they found the couple in a car, both with gunshot wounds to the head. Martha Garcia was dead. Her boyfriend, whose identity has not been released, died a little while later. Manuel Garcia, authorities said, killed them both.”

THE OFFICIAL RESPONSE:

— Addressing the tragedy in Seoul earlier at the moment, Trump asserted that, if Texas was a state with stricter gun rules, “hundreds more” might need died. David Nakamura studies: “Asked during a news conference here whether he would entertain ‘extreme vetting’ on guns, Trump appeared irritated by the question and suggested it was not appropriate to talk about ‘in the heart of South Korea.’ He then answered by saying ‘if we did what you are suggesting it would have made no difference three days ago.’ … Trump referred to [Stephen Willeford, who exchanged fire with Kelley outside the church] as a ‘brave man’ and said ‘if he had not had a gun, instead of having 26 dead, you would have had hundreds more dead … It’s not going to help.’”

— And Congress is more likely to do nothing to step up the nation’s gun legal guidelines. Ed O’Keefe and Sean Sullivan report: The capturing “Although Democrats and some Republicans have introduced dozens of proposals this year to address gun violence, there is no bill poised for consideration in a House or Senate committee or scheduled for an up-or-down vote. … A senior [House Judiciary Committee] aide would say only that the panel is in touch with the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives and the FBI about the shooting. ATF is also set to brief Judiciary Committee members this week on the use of bump stocks, aides said.”

— ATF officers have reportedly advised Congress they consider it lacks the authority to control bump shares. Politico’s Seung Min Kim and Heather Caygle report.

— Counterpoint: The gun foyer hasn’t superior pro-gun laws, regardless of Trump’s help of the NRA. Boston Globe’s Annie Linskey and Evan Horowitz report: “The NRA’s top agenda item is to pass a federal law that would allow a gun owner with a permit to carry a concealed weapon in one state to conceal that weapon in any other state that issues such permits, which is virtually every state in the country. … Despite Republican majorities in both chambers of Congress and more than 200 co-sponsors on the main bill for the measure, called ‘concealed carry reciprocity,’ there have been no hearings held on the bill, and it seems to be stalled.”

— Fierce gun-control advocate Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), who represents the state the place the Newtown bloodbath occurred in 2012, issued an announcement price studying, although its tone is darkish. “The paralysis you feel right now — the impotent helplessness that washes over you as news of another mass slaughter scrolls across the television screen — isn’t real. It’s a fiction created and methodically cultivated by the gun lobby, designed to assure that no laws are passed to make America safer, because those laws would cut into their profits,” he wrote. “None of this is inevitable.”

— In the meantime, Texas’s legal professional common referred to as for beefed-up safety measures at locations of worship. Lindsey Bever and Kristine Phillips report.

GET SMART FAST:​​

  1. Sen. Rand Paul’s neighbor — who was charged with assaulting the Republican senator outdoors his Kentucky dwelling this weekendmay face a felony cost after Paul’s accidents have been revealed to be extra extreme than first thought. An legal professional for Rene Boucher mentioned the dispute had “absolutely nothing to do with either’s politics or political agendas” and was merely “a very regrettable dispute between two neighbors over a matter that most people would regard as trivial.” (Wesley Lowery and Ed O’Keefe)
  2. The federal jury within the corruption trial of Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) started deliberating yesterday. Jurors will resolve whether or not the senator misused his workplace to help a pal and donor. (Alan Maimon)

  3. Saudi Arabia accused Iran of direct accountability for final week’s missile strike on Riyadh, considerably ramping up tensions within the area because it warned the assault could also be an “act of war.” (Kareem Fahim)  

  4. The Supreme Court docket unanimously reversed a decrease court docket’s determination to halt the execution of an Alabama loss of life row inmate who, resulting from his declining well being, couldn’t keep in mind the crime he dedicated. At the very least one justice argued, nonetheless, that the case raises an necessary constitutional query concerning the prolonged wait occasions for criminals on loss of life row. (Robert Barnes)
  5. Democrats in Oklahoma have received three GOP state legislative districts in particular elections since Trump’s victory final 12 months. However the Democratic newcomers largely received by embracing items of Trump’s playbook, specifically an emphasis on their standing as political outsiders. (Robert Samuels)

  6. Democratic mega-donor Tom Steyer is crying foul after Fox Information stopped airing his TV advert calling for Trump’s impeachment — shortly after it earned a response from Trump himself. Fox executives cited a “strong negative reaction to the ad” from its viewers, however Steyer has begun a counterattack suggesting the community is censoring a personal citizen to curry favor with Trump. (Dave Weigel)
  7. Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), at present being handled for mind most cancers, has suffered an Achilles’ tendon tear in his proper leg. Aides mentioned that McCain was handled for the tear and for different “normal and non-life-threatening side effects of cancer therapy” this weekend. The senator has returned to work and can “be wearing a walking boot” till the tendon damage is healed. (Sean Sullivan)
  8. Two NYPD detectives accused of raping an adolescent whereas she was in a police van have resigned, authorities mentioned Monday. The previous officers, who have been members of the NYPD’s Brooklyn South narcotics unit, are every going through dozens of expenses and a attainable $50 million lawsuit. (Kristine Phillips)
  9. Florida State College has suspended all fraternities and sororities indefinitely following the loss of life of a pledge. In an announcement, the varsity’s principal mentioned the suspension is efficient “immediately” and can stay in place till college students can create a “new normal” for Greek life on the college. (Sarah Larimer)
  10. A 50-year-old advertising and marketing govt was fired from her job at a authorities contracting agency after she was captured in a viral photograph flipping off Trump’s motorcade final month. After coming clear to her bosses, Juli Briskman says her employers “immediately” escorted her from the constructing with a field of her issues. (Petula Dvorak)

THE TAX OVERHAUL INCHES FORWARD:

— The day-long markup of the GOP tax invoice resulted in solely minor modifications, sidestepping requests from Trump that the laws embody a repeal of the Inexpensive Care Act’s particular person mandate. Mike DeBonis studies: “Home Methods and Means Committee Chairman Kevin Brady (R-Tex.) provided an modification that may tweak the way in which the invoice would tax the earnings of funding managers, cross-border transactions by multi­nationwide firms and the endowments of personal universities. The modification didn’t make different, extra pricey modifications to enterprise taxation[.] … [Brady said] that ‘we are not including various health-tax related measures as part of our tax reform efforts,’ although he didn’t particularly rule out repealing the ACA’s particular person mandate. ‘We will move to these important policies separately and immediately after conclusion of our tax reform efforts,’ Brady mentioned.”

— Large Oops: The Tax Coverage Middle was pressured to retract its report on the plan after it found an error in its calculations. Heather Lengthy studies: “Republicans and Democrats alike have cited the TPC’s assessment of tax proposals in recent years, but the error opens the organization to attacks from either party should lawmakers not like its conclusions. The uncorrected version of the report released Monday showed that the bulk of the House GOP bill’s benefits would go to the wealthy and that many working class households earning under $48,000 would see their tax bills rise in upcoming years. … Someone familiar with the error who was not authorized to speak publicly said the revised report would likely come to a similar conclusion overall, but that exact numbers of how many Americans are helped and hurt would be different.”

— The White Home’s Marc Quick and Gary Cohn will sit down at the moment with reasonable Democratic senators. Ed O’Keefe studies: “What, if any, substantive change to the emerging proposals might come out of the meeting is unclear — but it will allow the White House and these moderate Democrats to claim that they are at least trying to forge bipartisan consensus. … Despite being shut out of the tax debate, [the Democrats] attending Tuesday’s meeting have insisted they are eager to reach accord with Republicans.”

— Particular curiosity teams are actually flooding the zone to safe favorable modifications to the invoice. Politico’s Theodoric Meyer studies: “Trade associations in Washington have sent emails to their members across the country and held conferences calls to try to figure out the best way to convince the Ways and Means Committee to spare deductions and tax credits they view as essential to their industries. Now, many of the groups are settling on strategies for spurring their members to act or identifying members of Congress they will pressure to amend the proposal.”

TRUMP IN ASIA:

— Trump has arrived in South Korea, the place he’ll give a speech to the nation’s Nationwide Meeting. South Korean officers hope the president will use the speech to put out a concrete coverage on the North Korean nuclear menace. David Nakamura and Ashley Parker report: “The administration has made progress in ramping up pressure on the North, but analysts said many in Seoul, as well as Tokyo and Beijing, remain confused because Trump and his senior aides have offered mixed messages. … A senior administration official said Trump will use his speech to highlight the North Korean regime’s long history of human rights abuses — on its own people and abroad.”

In a information convention earlier at the moment, Trump asserted that he was making “a lot of progress” with North Korea. Our colleagues report: “[H]e urged dictator Kim Jong Un to ‘make a deal’ on the negotiating desk on the rogue nation’s nuclear weapons and ballistic missile packages. ‘I believe it makes sense for North Korea to do the right thing, not only for North Korea but for humanity all over the world,’ Trump mentioned . . . ‘I do see certain movement, yes, but we’ll see what happens.’ He provided no proof or particulars.”

— After South Korea, Trump will head to China, the place President Xi Jinping hopes to woo Trump and can give him the total red-carpet therapy. The New York Instances’s Jane Perlez and Mark Landler report: “The Chinese language are calling it ‘a state visit-plus,’ promising grand pageantry within the Nice Corridor of the Individuals and the traditional roofed pavilions of the Forbidden Metropolis. The welcome is deliberate to make Mr. Trump really feel necessary[.] … However the pomp can even be an opportunity for Mr. Xi to showcase his ‘China Dream’ — a imaginative and prescient of his nation becoming a member of or maybe supplanting the US as a superpower main the world. Mr. Xi is predicted to suggest some model of what he has referred to as a ‘new type of great power relations,’ the concept that China and the US ought to share international management as equals and break a historic sample of battle between rising and established powers.”

— Ashley Parker analyzes the connection between Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe: “Their relationship can seem like an oddball mismatch of global leaders who are thrust together over their shared dislike of the nuclear-armed tyrant next door in North Korea but who somehow hit it off amid golf course high jinks. Since Trump took office, Abe has been his most consistent suitor, courting him with luxurious gifts … and constant attention[.] … [But] their relationship has retained a subtext in which the U.S. president insists on asserting his dominance in a passive-aggressive manner. … [Trump] has continued to show who is the alpha — a price Abe appears willing to pay in his strategic servitude to keep Trump supporting the postwar security alliance that the president had openly questioned in his election campaign.”

THERE’S A BEAR IN THE WOODS:

— Russia’s help for Trump’s presidential marketing campaign started on Fb and Twitter simply weeks after he introduced his candidacy in June 2015, the Wall Road Journal’s Mark Maremont and Rob Barry report: “A U.S. intelligence evaluation launched early this 12 months concluded the Kremlin developed a ‘clear preference’ for Mr. Trump over [Clinton], however cited December 2015 because the earliest suspected time that Russian social-media accounts advocated for Mr. Trump … The sooner start line of pro-Trump tweets highlights the breadth of the Russian effort to govern social media through the 2016 election”

— Newly launched data present that, throughout a visit to Moscow final 12 months, Carter Web page despatched an e mail to fellow Trump marketing campaign associates describing “a personal dialog” with a senior Russian official who spoke extremely of Trump. Rosalind S. Helderman, Matt Zapotosky and Karoun Demirjian report: “Web page additionally wrote that he had been supplied ‘incredible insights and outreach’ by Russian lawmakers and ‘senior members’ of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s administration through the journey. The e-mail appeared to contradict earlier statements by Web page, who had mentioned he had solely exchanged temporary greetings with the senior Russian official, Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich, after he delivered a speech at a Russian college.”

— Buzzfeed subpoenaed the DNC for data associated to the Democratic hack – marking the publication’s newest try to defend itself from a libel lawsuit after publishing the now-infamous Trump file. International Coverage studies: “Aleksej Gubarev, a Russian know-how govt, has sued BuzzFeed for libel for its determination to publish a sequence of memos authored by the previous British spy Christopher Steele. These memos — a part of a so-called ‘dossier’ of details about [Trump’s] alleged ties to Russia, embody claims strongly denied by Gubarev that his firms have been recruited by the Kremlin’s safety organs to interrupt into Democratic Occasion pc methods forward of the 2016 election. BuzzFeed is making an attempt to determine if the allegations referring to its libel go well with are true as a part of its protection technique that might find yourself revealing particulars of the file and the DNC hack that haven’t been made public.”

— The decide dealing with the case in opposition to Paul Manafort and his deputy, Rick Gates, instructed that Robert Mueller’s crew was being “too lenient” in negotiating a bail package deal. Politico’s Josh Gerstein studies: “U.S. District Court docket Decide Amy Berman Jackson mentioned her inclination was to impose stricter situations on Manafort and Gates than the prosecution crew was proposing, however she mentioned she may acquiesce after she will get particulars of the settlement protection legal professionals try to strike with Mueller’s crew. A Justice of the Peace decide put Manafort and Gates in dwelling confinement final week after they have been [charged in a 12-count indictment]. Manafort agreed to pay $10 million if he failed to look in court docket and Gates agreed to pay $5 million … “

— In the meantime, Trump’s longtime physique guard and former White Home aide Keith Schiller is slated to testify at the moment earlier than the Home Intelligence Committee about Trump’s 2013 journey to Moscow for the Miss Universe pageant. Politico’s Annie Karni studies. “In interviews with greater than half a dozen White Home officers and former advisers, many shrugged off the potential for any huge revelation to come back out of Schiller’s testimony. However many Trump officers and buddies mentioned their predominant concern is that the sight of Trump’s longest-serving and closest aide … being hauled in entrance of a committee may worsen Trump as he enters a sequence of high-stakes conferences with the Chinese language on his 12-day journey by means of Asia.”

MORE PARADISE PAPER REVELATIONS:

— A prime aide to Wilbur Ross served on the board of Navigator Holdings – the transport firm revealed to have “significant” enterprise ties to Putin – whereas working within the Trump administration. Politico’s Lorraine Woellert, Nancy Cook dinner, and Andrew Restuccia report: “Wendy Teramoto retained her seat on Navigator’s board after becoming a member of Commerce in mid-March as a part-time adviser to Ross, one of the influential voices in [Trump’s] ear on international commerce and financial coverage. Teramoto didn’t resign her seat on Navigator’s board till July 17 … On Aug. 1, she was formally named Ross’s chief of workers. A Commerce spokesman downplayed Teramoto’s position, describing her job [until] Aug. 1 as a ‘part-time special government position …’ [but] two authorities staff who’ve labored with Teramoto described her position at Commerce through the months she remained on Navigator’s board as extra important, saying she was Ross’s closest ally and aide.”

— Ross indicated he would “in all probability not” maintain his stake within the Russian-linked transport firm, although he insisted in an interview that his funding didn’t pose a battle of curiosity. The New York Instances’s Mike McIntire studies: “He additionally defended Navigator’s enterprise dealings with Sibur, saying there was ‘nothing whatsoever wrong with it.’ Navigator was not listed in an ethics settlement Mr. Ross submitted in January that described the investments he supposed to maintain after becoming a member of the Trump administration. It had appeared in an earlier submitting displaying his belongings as of December 2016 … “

  • Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) instantly referred to as for an investigation, memorably evaluating Ross’s monetary disclosures to a “Russian nesting doll, with blatant conflicts of curiosity rigorously hidden inside seemingly innocuous holding firms.” “The Commerce Department’s Inspector General must open an inquiry immediately,” he added. 

— GOP megadonor Robert Mercer has now been implicated within the papers as effectively. The Guardian’s Jon Swaine studies: “Leaked documents and newly obtained public filings show how the billionaire Mercer family built a $60m war chest for conservative causes inside their family foundation by using an offshore investment vehicle to avoid US tax. The offshore vehicle was part of a network of companies in the Atlantic tax haven of Bermuda led by [Mercer.] … Mercer, 71, appears as a director of eight Bermuda companies in the Paradise Papers[.]”

— Larger image: “The number of Russian connections to President Trump’s campaign and to his administration should stun and worry even the most credulous Republicans,” Publish columnist Jennifer Rubin writes. “The blizzard of Russia connections between members of Trump’s crew, together with his son Donald Trump Jr. … and son-in-law, prime members of his administration (the legal professional common, former nationwide safety adviser [Michael] Flynn) and his marketing campaign (Manafort, George Papadopoulos, Web page), coupled with the utter lack of candor about such ties, all happen within the context of an election during which Russia executed a classy plan to intrude in our democracy.”

THE REST OF TRUMP’S AGENDA:

— Trump has reportedly ready an govt order weakening the ACA’s particular person mandate. Juliet Eilperin and Sean Sullivan report: “The draft order would broaden the ‘hardship exemption’ that the Obama administration established for individuals who face extraordinary circumstances, based on individuals conversant in the matter. … The Treasury Division, which enforces the mandate, has historically granted this exemption in circumstances such because the loss of life of a member of the family, chapter, a pure catastrophe, or when a taxpayer can not afford to pay his or her utilities.” However these household with the matter cautioned that Trump has not deserted the purpose of repealing the mandate by means of legislative routes.

— In the meantime, the variety of contributors in Obamacare’s exchanges has surged within the opening days of enrollment. Juliet studies: “More than 200,000 Americans chose a plan on Nov. 1, the day open enrollment began, according to one administration official. That’s more than double the number of consumers who signed up on the first day of enrollment last year. More than 1 million people visited HeathCare.gov, the official federal website, the official said, which amounts to roughly a 33 percent increase in traffic compared with 2016.”

— Vitality Secretary Rick Perry’s plan for revamping electrical energy markets may present a windfall for distinguished Trump supporter Bob Murray’s coal firm. Politico’s Darius Dixon and Eric Wolff report: “Perry’s plan would force consumers to subsidize ailing coal-fired and nuclear power plants with billions of dollars, in what he calls an effort to ensure that the nation’s power network can withstand threats like terrorist attacks or severe weather. But his narrowly written proposal would mostly affect plants in a stretch of the Midwest and Northeast where Murray’s mining company, Murray Energy, is the predominant supplier[.] … The company and its PAC together sent $200,000 to pro-Trump election efforts last year, while Bob Murray threw an invitation-only West Virginia fundraiser for Trump in 2016.”

WEINSTEIN’S P.R. MACHINE:

— The New Yorker printed Ronan Farrow’s newest have a look at Harvey Weinstein, reporting that Weinstein employed an elaborate system of legal professionals and intelligence firms (sure, that is right0 to suppress sexual assault allegations in opposition to him: “Within the fall of 2016 … [Weinstein] started to rent personal safety companies to gather data on the ladies and the journalists making an attempt to reveal the allegations. In response to dozens of pages of paperwork, and 7 individuals instantly concerned within the effort, the corporations that Weinstein employed included Kroll, which is without doubt one of the world’s largest corporate-intelligence firms, and Black Dice, an enterprise run largely by former officers of Mossad and different Israeli intelligence companies.

“Two personal investigators from Black Dice, utilizing false identities, met with the actress Rose McGowan, who finally publicly accused Weinstein of rape, to extract data from her. One of many investigators pretended to be a girls’s-rights advocate and secretly recorded no less than 4 conferences with McGowan. The identical operative, utilizing a distinct false id and implying that she had an allegation in opposition to Weinstein, met twice with a journalist to search out out which girls have been speaking to the press. … The specific purpose of the investigations, specified by one contract with Black Dice, signed in July, was to cease the publication of the abuse allegations in opposition to Weinstein[.] … Over the course of a 12 months, Weinstein had the companies ‘target,’ or gather data on, dozens of people, and compile psychological profiles that generally centered on their private or sexual histories. Weinstein monitored the progress of the investigations personally.

— How we acquired right here: “The ‘Click’ Moment: How the Weinstein Scandal Unleashed a Tsunami,” by the New York Instances’s Jessica Bennett: “Forty years ago this month, Ms. magazine put sexual harassment on its cover for the first time. Understanding the sensitivity of the topic, the editors used puppets for the cover image — a male hand reaching into a woman’s blouse — rather than a photograph. It was banned from some supermarkets nonetheless. In 1977, the term sexual harassment had not been defined in the law and had barely entered the public lexicon. And yet, to read that Ms. article today, amid a profound shift in discourse, is to feel haunted by its familiarity … ‘What we have so far seen,’ the article stated, ‘is only the tip of a very large and very destructive iceberg.’”

SOCIAL MEDIA SPEED READ:

Trump expressed his help for Saudi Arabia’s management following the latest purge of influential residents:

From a former NSC spokesman for Barack Obama:

Certainly one of The Publish’s White Home reporters famous this of Trump’s journey:

A New Yorker cartoon addressed the tragedy in Texas:

Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Sick.) implored his colleagues to handle gun management:

The president’s son spoke out in opposition to gun management within the wake of the capturing:

Don Jr.’s Twitter habits additionally caught the eye of a CNN reporter:

One of many Instances’s investigative reporters who initially broke the Weinstein story applauded the ladies who’ve come ahead:

Gretchen Carlson thanked Ronan Farrow for his newest story on Weinstein’s intensive efforts to silence his accusers:

The transcript of Carter Web page’s testimony earlier than the Home Intelligence Committee was launched:

Web page provided this justification for his travels to Russia:

Sen. Rand Paul’s (R-Ky.) dispute with a neighbor turned clearer, per a New York Instances political correspondent:

Barack Obama implored his followers to vote at the moment:

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) introduced doughnuts to Virginia volunteers:

And James Comey formally joined Twitter after working beneath the identify Reinhold Niebuhr for years:

GOOD READS FROM ELSEWHERE:

— Politico Journal, “Robby Mook Can’t Stop Not Talking About 2016,” by Gabriel Debenedetti: “Mook has spent the last year fending off media requests to talk about What Went Wrong, and trying to pivot to Russia. He’s mostly ignored the sniping and second-guessing from Democratic operatives like Donna Brazile and Stan Greenberg, insisting he doesn’t even read the criticism. Even here in the Ivory Tower, though, 2016 is a subject he can’t avoid—and he’s presenting his last two years as a cautionary tale for a bunch of still-caffeinating twenty- and thirty-somethings.”

— The New York Instances, “After a Tax Crackdown, Apple Found a New Shelter for Its Profits,” by Jesse Drucker and Simon Bowers: “Irish officials began to crack down on the tax structure Apple had exploited. So the iPhone maker went hunting for another place to park its profits, newly leaked records show. With help from law firms that specialize in offshore tax shelters, the company canvassed multiple jurisdictions before settling on the small island of Jersey, which typically does not tax corporate income. Apple has accumulated more than $128 billion in profits offshore, and probably much more, that is untaxed by the United States and hardly touched by any other country. Nearly all of that was made over the past decade.”

HOT ON THE LEFT

“Papa John’s condemns new customers: White supremacists,” from Louisville Courier Journal: “In the days following a rant by Papa John’s CEO and Louisville resident John Schnatter where he blamed the NFL and anthem protests for low sales, a white-supremacist publication claimed it as their official pizza.  In a blog post at the Daily Stormer, a photo of pizza with pepperonis arranged in a swastika has a caption that reads ‘Papa John: Official pizza of the alt-right?’ … Peter Collins, the senior director of public relations at Papa John’s, said the company was taken off-guard by the endorsement. ‘We condemn racism in all forms and any and all hate groups that support it,’ Collins told Courier Journal. ‘We do not want these individuals or groups to buy our pizza.’”

 

HOT ON THE RIGHT

“In Early Draft, Comey Called Clinton ‘Grossly Negligent’ in Handling Emails,” from the Wall Road Journal: “James Comey’s early draft of a statement concerning allegations that Hillary Clinton and her top aides mishandled classified information called the former secretary of state’s actions ‘grossly negligent[.’] … According to documents received by Senate Judiciary Chairman Chuck Grassley (R., Iowa), that language was included twice in a draft of Mr. Comey’s statement in May 2016. His final statement, delivered on July 5, 2016, used the phrase ‘extremely careless’ in describing Mrs. Clinton’s use of a private server. The phrase ‘gross negligence’ appears in a federal law governing the handling of classified information as the standard that makes the loss or removal of such information a federal crime. In the initial drafts, Mr. Comey still recommended against prosecution.”

 

DAYBOOK:

Trump’s Asia swing continues. As we speak he’s in South Korea and can attend a state dinner with the primary girl. 

Pence has a name with the president of Afghanistan earlier than he goes to Capitol Hill for conferences with lawmakers.

QUOTE OF THE DAY: 

New York Metropolis Mayor Invoice de Blasio (D) lambasted the GOP tax plan, writing in Enterprise Insider, “The Republicans may as effectively ask hardworking New Yorkers to withdraw $1,000 from the financial institution machine and discover a hedge fund supervisor to provide it to. In the meantime, dropping that cash will pressure households to make horrible selections between meals and medication or hire and tutoring for a kid.”

 

NEWS YOU CAN USE IF YOU LIVE IN D.C.:

— It will likely be colder and cloudy in D.C. at the moment. The Capital Climate Gang forecasts: “Not-So-Good Day at the moment with a dense cloudy morning resulting in a wet afternoon as temperatures require jackets or coats or raincoats. Search for these rains to start out round noon or early afternoon at gentle to generally reasonable depth. Temperatures wrestle to exceed the 40s many of the day with highs within the higher 40s to about 50.”

— The Capitals beat the Coyotes Three-2 in additional time. (Isabelle Khurshudyan)

— The Nationals’ Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg are finalists for the Nationwide League Cy Younger Award. (Chelsea Janes)

— A person who reportedly threatened to kill “all white police” on the White Home was arrested. Michael Arega, of Dallas, was discovered throughout the road from the White Home and brought into custody. (Martin Weil)

— Metro plans to clean up the appearances of their older railcars to resemble the latest automobiles. Faiz Siddiqui studies: “The changes include installing a silver vinyl overwrap that mimics the appearance of the 7000-series cars, replacing carpet with confetti patterned, non-stick flooring and outfitting them with blue padded seats — from older, legacy models. Two 6000-series cars will ‘look like new trains’ beginning this week, Metro said. Metro says the changes will give its railcars a clean, unified look — and save money in the long run.”

VIDEOS OF THE DAY:

Following the most recent mass capturing, Stephen Colbert implored his viewers on Election Day to vote for “somebody who will do one thing:”

Impressed by Japan’s Shinzo Abe, Seth Meyers determined to make his personal personalised hat with a message for Trump:

The pastor from Sutherland Springs spoke out for the primary time since a gunman killed 26 at his church, together with his teenage daughter:

The Publish defined the mechanics of semi-automatic rifles, which have been utilized in many mass shootings, together with Sutherland Springs:

Peruvians protested bullfighting in Lima:

And Elton John shocked the viewers of “The Lion King” for a efficiency of “Circle of Life” to mark the musical’s 20th anniversary:



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